The state of the eSIM market

The GSMA introduced the eSIM in 2010 for the Internet of Things (IoT) segment. Six years later, the GSMA approved eSIM technology for consumer devices and, after another year, the first eSIM-enabled mobile phone — the Google Pixel 2 — came out.

The market was optimistic but cautious. MNOs found it challenging to develop eSIM infrastructure, and consumers and OEMs played a waiting game. However, the answer soon came from the cloud—or, rather, the cloud was the answer.

In 2018, Trasna became the first eSIM provider to launch a GSMA SAS-certified, cloud-based eSIM remote provisioning platform.

MNOs could subscribe to the service and immediately deploy eSIM services without needing to build their own eSIM infrastructure on-site. In 2021, we also launched the Multi-tenant eSIM Hub (MeSH), the first-ever multi-tenant eSIM management platform that allowed MNOs to manage their eSIM services across a mix of different vendors, verticals, clients, and locations.

The turning point came when Apple released the eSIM-only iPhone in the United States in 2022. Since then, Apple has not looked back, releasing all eSIM-only iPhones in the United States. By default, millions of U.S. iPhone users had no choice but to switch to eSIM, accounting for the approximately 30% eSIM penetration in the United States.

The table is set. Various factors are now in place and aligned for massive eSIM adoption.

There are subscriber management solutions providers like Trasna to equip telcos, MNOs, enterprises, and OEMs with a connectivity management platform, an OTA platform, in-factory profile provisioning, eSIM orchestration, eSIM user activation, and entitlement servers, among other eSIM solutions.

‍

Manufacturer adoption

Meanwhile, one of the biggest manufacturers of consumer devices, Apple, declared its vote of confidence for eSIM tech with its eSIM-only devices.

Apple succeeded in forcing eSIM adoption among the millions of iPhone users in the United States, and this has effectively broken the barrier to massive eSIM acceptance among mobile phone users and consumer device manufacturers.

‍

Form factor developments

The eSIM form factor continues to evolve. From the embedded SIM, there’s a movement towards the system-on-a-chip (SoC) architecture of the iSIM or integrated SIM.

GSMA, meanwhile, continues to develop eSIM specifications to guide telcos, connectivity solutions providers, enterprises, and other industry stakeholders on the technical requirements of eSIM deployments. It published the third iteration of consumer eSIM specifications, adding the multiple enable profile (MEP) capability to eSIMs.

Under MEP, consumer eSIMs can have two active operator profiles in addition to the multiple inactive profiles in storage. This is a major improvement over the earlier versions of the consumer specifications that allowed only one profile to be active at any given time.

The release of the eSIM standard for IoT implementation, which improved on the eSIM for machine-to-machine (M2M) specifications, is the pièce de résistance so far. The eSIM for IoT provides a more flexible and scalable solution than the M2M eSIM. It makes eSIM connectivity accessible even to the most constrained IoT devices.

‍

Maturing 5G technology

5G, the fifth-generation mobile broadband technology, was introduced in 2018. It has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

By 2023, there were more than 1.5 billion 5G connections, according to GSMA Intelligence. GSMA also predicts 5G networks are likely to be accessible to one-third of the world’s population.

5G and eSIM are separate technologies with distinct purposes, but the expected expansion of 5G mobile broadband coverage should be one more factor fueling widespread eSIM adoption. The considerable speed and low latency of 5G make eSIM updating, profile discovery and network switching easier and more seamless for eSIM devices, which will definitely positively impact eSIM adoption rates.

Considering all the above-cited developments, it comes as no surprise that eSIM is expected to become a mainstream feature of modern internet-connected smartphones and cellular devices, boosting consumer, commercial and industrial adoption worldwide.

The presentation by GSMA product director Chris Li on the eSIM market share at the MWC24 Shanghai – eSIM Summit: A New Era of Innovation provides a detailed view of the current eSIM market trends. Based on GSMA Intelligence data, half of the countries (120) now offer eSIM connectivity.

There are 598 million eSIM smartphone connections globally, but by 2028, 50% of all smartphone connections will be via eSIM. Additionally, while most cellular IoT devices today still use the removable SIM card, eSIM will grow until it accounts for 71% of cellular IoT connections by 2030.

This is consistent with Counterpoint Research’s data, which say 70% of all cellular devices shipped by 2030 will be eSIM- or iSIM-capable. That’s >70% of smartwatches, >80% of smartphones, >90% of connected automobiles, and >95% of tablets and drones.

Meanwhile, Juniper Research’s findings indicate there are 1.1 billion active eSIM devices today (2024). eSIM IoT connections, which stand at 165 million in 2024, will grow by 680% and become 1.3 billion by 2028.

More travellers will shift to using eSIM instead of international roaming to maintain cellular network service. While there are 40 million travel eSIM users in 2024, this figure will grow by 440% and become 215 million by 2028.

‍

eSIM: On the way to mainstream

Today, the removable SIM card remains the mainstream way consumers, enterprises and industries connect devices to wireless cellular networks. However, the eSIM market is expanding.

By 2030, eSIM will overtake removable SIM cards and become the mainstream SIM of choice for smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and other cellular IoT devices.